Firm‐specific forecast errors and asymmetric investment propensity
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper analyzes how firm-specific forecast errors derived from survey data of German manufacturing firms over 2007–2011 relate to firms' investment propensity. Our findings reveal that asymmetries arise depending on the size and direction error. The propensity declines if realized situation is worse than expected. However, do not adjust better expected suggesting uncertainty component error counteracts good surprises unexpectedly favorable business conditions. asymmetric mechanism can be one explanation behind slow recovery following crises.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Economic Inquiry
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['0043-3640', '1465-7295', '0095-2583']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13045